Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. I think thats what the world needed. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. 2016 Trump. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . On . Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. . He says Democratic Gov. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. He isnt so sure about Biden. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. As part of The Epoch Times Association, Inc., a nonprofit organization we stand outside of political interests and the pursuit of profit, to educate readers about today's most critical issues . Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. And we just want that to continue. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. He is his own worst enemy.. Two states have announced recounts. Thus it would appear that bellwether. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. Your email address will not be published. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. Medicare is becoming a joke. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. It was easy. I think he is more for giving to the people.. This includes personalizing content and advertising. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. By Cara Ding. 0:00 0:00. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Nothing is free, Hawker said. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. A lot of people think things are. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. We believe that there are two main reasons. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? Blaine County. We need election reform.. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Im not happy with either party. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. Port Clinton, Ohio. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. Two states have announced recounts. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. We were as far down to five cooks last year. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. Its gone, Jacobs said. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. It will cycle through. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. I believe in a time cycle. They've been dubbed "bellwether counties" and until this year,. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. That is, until this year. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . Theyre scared. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. I quit voting once out of the union.. Vance. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. That is a very good thing to have. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference.