[17][18] Tetlock uses the phrase "intuitive politician research program" to describe this line of work. Binary bias: The human tendency to seek clarity by reducing a spectrum of categories to two opposites. They give examples of successful and unsuccessful decision-making processes, none more diametrically opposed as two US Army missions. The authors stress that good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods. Professor Philip Tetlock reveals the gripping story of superforecasters - ordinary people with real, demonstrable abilities in successfully predicting the future - and how we can . We have no awareness of these rapid-fire processes but we could not function without them. Jason Zweig ofThe Wall Street Journalcalls it the most important book on decision making since Daniel KahnemansThinking, Fast and Slow, which, in the area of behavioral economics, is very high praise indeed. PHILIP TETLOCK: We want a lot of things from our forecasters, and accuracy is often not the first thing. Wilbur Wright: Honest argument is merely a process of mutually picking the beams and motes out of each others eyes so both can see clearly.. [29][30] In this view, political actorsbe they voters or national leadersare human beings whose behavior should be subject to fundamental psychological laws that cut across cultures and historical periods. Optimism and big-picture thinking will help you sell your business idea. Practical tip: Favor content that presents many sides of an issue rather than a singular or binary view. Jeff Bezos: People who are right a lot listen a lot, and they change their mind a lot. He is author of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Perspective-seeking is more useful than perspective-taking. Being persuaded is defeat. Imposter syndrome: Phenomenon where competence exceeds confidence. Do recognize the ideas and the roles being applied and operate within them. Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania and author of Superforecasting talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his work on assessing probabilities with teams of thoughtful a Show EconTalk, Ep Philip Tetlock on Superforecasting - Dec 20, 2015 Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Do preach to the people that already believe in your mission. Escalation of commitment is another (psychological factor). Philip E. Tetlock BOOKS Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Tetlock, P., Gardner, D. (2015) New York, NY: Crown Publishing. Even a single idea can curb overconfidence. Author sees the idea of best practices as misguided. Get these quick-to-read conversation starters in your inbox every morning. Better yet, make your identity one in which you actively seek truth and knowledgethis opens you up to curiosity and rethinking. Changing your mind is a sign of intellectual integrity and a response to evidence. Daryl has gone on to befriend a number of former members who have similarly disavowed their past beliefs. 8 He went on to do his doctoral studies at Yale, where he obtained his Ph.D. in psychology in 1979. Good outcomes arent always the result of good decisions. Make a list of conditions in which your forecast holds true. It now turns out there are some people who are spectacularly good at . Reply to symposium on Expert political judgment: How good is it? The author continuously refutes this idea. Relationship conflict: Personal feuds and arguments (e.g. Weak arguments dilute strong ones. As a result of this work, he received the 2008 University of Louisville Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order, as well as the 2006 Woodrow Wilson Award for best book published on government, politics, or international affairs and the Robert E. Lane Award for best book in political psychology, both from the American Political Science Association in 2005. What might happen if its wrong? Optimism and. What are the disadvantages? It is the realm of automatic perceptual and cognitive operationslike those you are running right now to transform the print on this page into a meaningful sentence or to hold the book while reaching for a glass and taking a sip. He found that overall, his study subjects weren't. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. Keeping your books How Can We Know? Professor Tetlock, who's based at the University of Pennsylvania, famously did a 20-year study of political predictions involving more than 280 experts, and found that on balance their rate of . Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Every individual possesses cognitive tools and accumulated knowledge that they regularly rely upon. Political Psychology, 15, 509-530. [28], Tetlock has a long-standing interest in the tensions between political and politicized psychology. Pros: Important topic well worth pondering. During a spacewalk, Luca felt water in his helmet. It's also the question that Philip Tetlock, a psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-author of "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," has dedicated his career to answering. Organizational culture can either foster or inhibit rethinking. Designing accountability systems: How do people cope with various types of accountability pressures and demands in their social world? Psychological safety: The ability to take risks without fear of punishment or reprisal. Confident humility: An ideal wherein the individual has faith in their abilities but retains sufficient doubt and flexibility to recognize they could be wrong. Why do you think its correct? So too do different mental jobs. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Example: How does a bicycle, piano or appliance work? Experiments can inform our daily decisions.. In practice, they often diverge.. How Can We Know? Good teachers introduce new thoughts, but great teachers introduce new ways of thinking., Education is more than the information we accumulate in our heads. Tetlock, P.E. In environments with psychological safety, teams will report more problems and errors (because they are comfortable doing so). There is a tension, if not contradiction, between the positions taken in the Good Judgment Project and those that Tetlock took in his earlier book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Once I'd gotten that framework into my head, I couldn't let it go. In order to develop The Good Judgment Project, Tetlock worked alongside Barbara Mellers, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. If we want to get an idea across or attempt to change someones mind, our best bet is to first understand the lay of the land and the roles everyone is playing. Tetlock, P.E., (2000). taxation and spending. Group polarization: The phenomenon where we interact with people like us. Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction 3 likes Like "Here's a very simple example," says Annie Duke, an elite professional poker player, winner of the World Series of Poker, and a former PhD-level student of psychology. Do prosecute a competitors product. So Philip Tetlock reported in his 02005 book, Expert Political Judgement and in a January 02007 SALT talk. When we dedicate ourselves to a plan and it isnt going as we hoped, our first instinct isnt usually to rethink it. In collaboration with Greg Mitchell and Linda Skitka, Tetlock has conducted research on hypothetical societies and intuitions about justice ("experimental political philosophy"). Part IV: Conclusion The preacher - this is where we are the 'enlightened one' who knows the answer. Central to nearly all debates about politics, power, and justice is the tension between. There are solid ideas in Think Again, but the presentation left this reader wanting. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 43, 195-209. The interviewer serves as a guide, not a leader or advisor. After publishing this study in 2005, he spent years attempting to uncover what sets these superforecasters apart.1Research into superforecasters was conducted by The Good Judgment Project, an initiative Tetlock founded with Barbara Mellers, a colleague from the University of Pennsylvania.2The research Tetlock and his team conducted demonstrated that the key attributes of a superforecaster are teamwork, thinking in terms of probabilities, drawing knowledge from a variety of sources, and willingness to own up to their mistakes and take a different approach.3, Forecasters who see illusory correlations and assume that moral and cognitive weakness run together will fail when we need them most., Philip Tetlock inSuperforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Superforecasters have been shown to be so impressive in their ability to forecast future outcomes that they have outperformed highly trained intelligence analysts who have access to classified information that the superforecasters do not.4In their 2015 book,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner trace patterns in forecasting through history. Tetlocks primary research interest, the question of what constitutes good judgment, is also his claim to fame. Recognize complexity as a signal of credibility., Psychologists find that people will ignore or even deny the existence of a problem if theyre not fond of the solution.. How Can We Know? This is especially troubling for people like policymakers, whose decisions affect entire populations. So too do different mental jobs. Politician mode seeks the approval of others and has little conviction for the truth. How politicized is political psychology and is there anything we should do about it? A vaccine whisperer is called in. He asked the man How can you hate me when you dont even know me? The men became friends and the KKK member eventually renounced his membership. Chapter 8: Charged Conversations. Beginners rarely make Dunning-Kruger errors. Cons: The pattern of bookending every chapter with an anecdote gets tiresome. Additionally, companies can enroll in virtual workshops to boost their forecasting capabilities.14. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. black and white) leads to polarization, but presenting issues as complex with many gradations of viewpoints leads to greater cooperation. Preachers: We pontificate and promote our ideas. And how do experts respond to confirmation/disconfirmation of expectations? freedom and equality. In B.M. Counterfactual thought experiments: Why we can't live with them and how we must learn to live with them. Social-Functionalist Metaphors for Judgment and Choice: The Intuitive Politician, Theologian, and Prosecutor. Essentially, there are three modes, according to Tetlock: Preacher: In Preacher mode, we hold a fundamentally inarguable idea that we will passionately express, protecting it with great devotion. How can organization structure incentives and accountability procedures to check common cognitive biases such as belief perseverance and over-confidence? Part I: Individual Rethinking Opening story: Columbia Universitys Difficult Conversations Lab. For millennia, great thinkers and scholars have been working to understand the quirks of the human mind. This mindset embraces Grants idea of rethinking. Philip Tetlock: It virtually always influences how people make decisions, but it's not always good. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Skepticism is foundational to the scientific method, whereas denial is the a priori rejection of ideas without objective consideration..
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